![]() ![]() Question #1: Describe the time-series plot of FSPCOM, noting any significant trend or seasonality.Ī formal way to test for data stationarity in FORECASTX TM is to estimate the autocorrelation function and the related correlogram. To visually view the data over the sample period we generated the following plot in Excel. Specifically, preliminary data analysis for trend (stationarity), seasonality, and cyclical components should always be undertaken. It is important to ascertain the time-series properties of our data, which will guide us in the model selection process. This was computed using a spreadsheet as follows: The series %FSPCOM is the percentage change in the S&P 500 composite index over the period. Note the FSPCOM data are index numbers representing a value-weighted average of 500 stocks of major U.S. The series FSPCOM is the monthly S&P 500 Composite Stock Index. ![]() The spreadsheet for this problem is CH3_Case1.xls. ![]()
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